Article 4116

Title of the article

ON RISK EVENT OCCURRENCE ESTIMATED PROBABILITY: A FUNCTIONAL-PARAMETRIC APPROACH

Authors

Abramov Oleg Vasil'evich, doctor of technical sciences, professor, honored worker of science of Russia, head of the department reliability and quality problems, Institute of Automation and Control processes, Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences (690041, 5 Radio Street, Vladivostok, Russia), abramov@iacp.dvi.ru

Index UDK

65.012.122

Abstract

Some approaches to the problem of assessing and managing anthropogenic risks based on the ideas of functional and parametric direction of reliability theory. The process of functioning of the system and its technical condition are determined by some finite set of variables – the parameters of the system, and all failures are a result of deviations of parameters from their initial values. It is assumed that the form of manifestation of failure is the output of the parameters outside the feasible region. Deviations of the parameters are formed under the influence of various factors operating in the production process, storage and operation, and have a random character. Parameters of technical systems are considered as some random function of time, patterns which are considered to be known. The task of risk analysis is to estimate the probability output of a random process change the settings. The main attention is paid to the problem of forecasting the probability of occurrence of a risk event.

Key words

technogenic risk, parameter, working capacity, engineering system, reliability, parametrical failure, forecasting.

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Дата создания: 18.05.2016 11:09
Дата обновления: 19.05.2016 10:14